After three consecutive strong harvests, Australian grain and oilseed production is set to return to more modest totals for the current season as drier growing conditions ‘hit home’, Rabobank said in its recently released 2023-24 Australian Winter Crop Forecast.
The bank said Australia was on track to harvest a total winter crop of 48.72 million tonnes for the current season.
While down 24 percent on last season’s record-breaking 63.85 million tonne national crop, this is still close to the five-year average and above totals recorded in 2018-19 and 2020-21.
And report co-author RaboResearch associate analyst Edward McGeoch said prices were expected to provide some silver lining to the lower production totals for Australian farmers, with dry conditions in Australia pushing local prices above those globally, to a ‘positive basis’ for wheat and also barley.
While global export demand should also be supportive of canola prices.
Mr McGeoch said drier weather conditions that have spread across many cropping regions in the country and the prevailing El Niño climate outlook were playing a significant role in the tighter supply outlook for Australian grain and oilseeds.
“Production expectations are varied across regions, with some farmers expecting to see elevated production due to positive growing conditions they have experienced, while others will be facing tough decisions as to whether it will be worth harvesting their crop,” he said.
The bank said all cereal and coarse grain production – including wheat, barley and oats – was expected to decrease this season, with wheat declining the furthest, down to 26.9 million tonnes.
Winter crop production was expected to decline across all states except Victoria, where the bank anticipates it rising by eight percent from last year.
However, Mr McGeoch said this was primarily due to the losses incurred during last year’s harvest, with a significant proportion of crops in the northern parts of the state unable to be harvested because of flood damage.
“Parts of Victoria have seen further strong rainfall across cropping regions in early October, which will play a significant role in determining if these targets will be achieved or exceeded,” he said.
While Australia’s wheat production was forecast to come in at 26.9 million tonnes – down 26 percent on last season – barley and canola will suffer less decline, Rabobank said.
“Barley is expected to see the slightest decline in all grains and oilseeds this year – down 18 percent on last year to 11.91 million tonnes,” Mr McGeoch said.
“However, this is primarily due to an increased planted area for barley this season compared with 2022-23, while the remainder of the winter crop varieties saw reductions in planted area.”
Canola production is forecast to fall 24 percent on last year to 5.77 million tonnes.
Mr McGeoch said this total however remains 20 percent higher than the five-year average, while pulse production – though forecast to be down this season – also remains slightly higher than the five-year average, at 3.08 million tonnes.
The biggest declines in total grain and oilseed production are expected in Queensland and Western Australia, at 36 percent and 35 percent respectively on last season.
For Queensland, 2023-24 total production was forecast to come in at 2.15 million tonnes, taking a significant hit due to dry weather conditions.
“Wheat is expected to see the largest fall in the state, down 41 percent year on year, which is compounded by a reduction in planted area this season, however it does remain above the five-year average,” Mr McGeoch said.
Expectations are for production totals in WA to fall to 14.27 million tonnes.
This total has been influenced by several factors, including the late ‘autumn break’ leading to crops being planted in cooler conditions, which increased frost susceptibility.
“This has been coupled with lack of rainfall during the growing season leading to poorer soil moisture levels once high temperatures returned in early spring,” Mr McGeoch said.
Total tonnage for NSW winter crop was forecast to decline 27 percent on last year – to 11.03 million tonnes.
The state’s central and northwest regions have been worst hit by dry spring conditions and lack of rainfall totals during the growing season, with only 70 percent of total planted crop area expected to be harvested in some parts.
For South Australia, production totals are expected to fall to 9.3 million tonnes.
While this is down 26 percent from the extremely strong 2022 season, these volumes remain well above the five-year average, Mr McGeoch said.
The report said Australia’s export outlook for the year ahead would be significantly impacted by the fall in the production potential for the current season, “given we are coming off a string of consistently strong seasons.”
“We are however still well positioned to support global wheat needs, while also seeing supportive factors for canola and barley exports,” Mr McGeoch said.
Given the reduced production outlook, Australia’s exportable surplus from the current 2023-24 wheat crop (excluding 2022/23 carryover) is forecast to total 18.6 million tonnes, with global export demand remaining strong, despite Russia increasing its share of the wheat export market.
Barley and canola export surpluses from the 2023-24 harvest (excluding carryover from last season) are expected to total 5.9 million tonnes and 4.6 million tonnes respectively.
“Again, reductions in global production of barley and canola are supporting export demand to key markets,” Mr McGeoch said.
Commodity price outlook
Moving to the end of this year, the bank said the environment is becoming more supportive for global grain prices, with all major grain harvests – bar Australia – to be wrapped up by December.
Dry conditions in Canada and Argentina are also putting potential additional pressure on global supply.
Rabobank forecasts Chicago Board of Trade wheat – the bellwether for global wheat prices – to trade around $A0.91-$A1.03 per bushel over the next 12 months, 7 percent below the five-year average.
CBOT corn prices, indicative of global feed grain prices, are expected to trade between $A0.74-$A0.83 per bushel, 35 percent below the five-year average.
Locally, the bank expects national track Free in Store APW1 wheat prices to trade on average between $A360-$A400 per tonne over the next 12 months.
Feed barley track FIS prices are expected to trade on average between $A320-$A370 per tonne over the next 12 months, just above the five-year average of $A312 per tonne.
“The reduced supply outlook is supporting local prices, as we have domestic consumption and export competition,” Mr McGeoch said.
For canola, the bank believes there will be support for higher global prices due to smaller Canadian and Australian crops compared with last year, while Canada is also expected to crush more internally in early 2024.
Locally non-GM canola prices are forecast to trade on average between $A650-$A700 per tonne over the next 12 months.
Australian farmers are expected to face a better year ahead when it comes to their farm input costs, the report said, with the exception of diesel.
Report co-author RaboResearch agricultural analyst Vitor Pistoia said there were two “driving forces” behind the improved outlook for input costs.
“These are lower global prices for many inputs due to a new balance of supply and demand, which is favouring supply,” Mr Pistoia said.
“Also input prices in Australia tend to lag behind the rest of the world, with a long lead time before changes in global input prices are felt locally.
“This means that the prices farmers will have here when they procure their inputs by early 2024 will be the ones that are seen globally in quarter three and four of this year, which are tracking at much lower levels than the same period in 2022.”
The reports said that based on market factors at the moment, urea is expected to remain near current levels and phosphate to ease by 10 to 15 percent in early 2024.
For potash, the forecast is for stable prices.
Agro chemicals were likely to have lower prices and better affordability in the 2024 season, Mr Pistoia said.
Diesel prices however look to remain at elevated levels due to capped petroleum production in many exporting nations, along with reduced global refinery capacity impacted by shutdowns and maintenance.
Brent oil prices should stay around the $149.94 per barrel mark, with potential hikes up to $157.83 per barrel possible.
“These factors, combined with expectations for a continuing weak Australian dollar, put the diesel terminal gate price slightly above $2 per litre, in a range between $2 to $2.2 per litre,” Mr Pistoia said.
“This is 6-17 percent above January 2023 prices.”
For machinery and parts, despite substantial reductions in component costs in the past 12 months – including for steel, rubber and international freight – prices are not expected to decline considerably.
This is due to the weaker Australian dollar and local inflation in machinery producing nations.